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Patrick Bailey

Cleveland Guardians

Patrick Bailey’s 407 ft home run at Progressive Field — out in 29 of 30 MLB ballparks

Patrick Bailey hit a 407-foot home run to centre field at Progressive Field on September 1, 2026. It would have cleared the wall in 29 of MLB’s 30 ballparks.

Blue Jays at Guardians (1–6), off Spencer Arrighetti.

  • 29/30Ballparks it clears
  • 407 ftProjected distance
  • 103.5 mphExit velocity
  • 31.0°Launch angle
  • -9.8°Spray angle

Field view — Progressive Field

Out here
200300400

The ball landed 407 ft from the plate, centre field, where the wall is 382 ft. The outline is this park’s wall; the dashed line is the ball’s path over the ground.

Would it be out in every ballpark?

Each park’s outfield wall is sampled at seven spray angles and interpolated to this ball’s -9.8° angle, then compared against its 407-foot projected distance. On that basis it clears the wall in 29 of 30 parks and stays in play in the other 1.

The parks that hold it are the ones with a deeper wall at -10°, which is why the same swing is worth a different result depending on the address. Distance here is Statcast’s projected distance from the MLB Stats API — where the ball would have landed unobstructed. Wall height and the ball’s trajectory arc are not modelled, so a ball that clears on distance might still have hit high off a tall wall in a park that has one.

BallparkWall at this angleResult
CHC logoWrigley Field379 ftHome run
HOU logoDaikin Park381 ftHome run
MIL logoAmerican Family Field381 ftHome run
TB logoTropicana Field382 ftHome run
LAD logoDodger Stadium382 ftHome run
CLE logoProgressive Field382 ftHome run
LAA logoAngel Stadium383 ftHome run
PHI logoCitizens Bank Park383 ftHome run
TOR logoRogers Centre384 ftHome run
ATL logoTruist Park384 ftHome run
STL logoBusch Stadium384 ftHome run
TEX logoGlobe Life Field384 ftHome run
ATH logoSutter Health Park385 ftHome run
CHW logoRate Field385 ftHome run
ARI logoChase Field385 ftHome run
WSH logoNationals Park386 ftHome run
SEA logoT-Mobile Park386 ftHome run
MIN logoTarget Field386 ftHome run
CIN logoGreat American Ball Park388 ftHome run
NYM logoCiti Field389 ftHome run
SF logoOracle Park389 ftHome run
SD logoPetco Park392 ftHome run
PIT logoPNC Park393 ftHome run
BAL logoCamden Yards393 ftHome run
MIA logoloanDepot Park393 ftHome run
KC logoKauffman Stadium395 ftHome run
COL logoCoors Field399 ftHome run
BOS logoFenway Park400 ftHome run
NYY logoYankee Stadium402 ftHome run
DET logoComerica Park415 ftStays in

More

donged — how many of MLB’s 30 ballparks would that home run have left the yard in? Distances are Statcast projected distance from the MLB Stats API, compared against each park’s outfield wall at the ball’s spray angle. Wall height and trajectory arc are not modelled.

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